By Walter Moore, Candidate for Mayor of Los Angeles, WalterMooreForMayor.com

Villaraigosa claims crime is down since he took office, and that he should receive credit for the supposed reduction.  Voters should take his claims with the proverbial grain of salt for several reasons:

1.  Villaraigosa Conveniently Re-Defined “Violent Crime”

One way to reduce violent crime is simply to change the definition of “violent crime.”  City Council Member Bernard Parks, who used to be the City’s Police Chief, put it bluntly:  “The fact of the matter is, the LAPD is cooking the books.”  According to an article in the Daily News, Parks believes crime rates are down because the LAPD no longer includes domestic abuse cases in the most serious crime categories.  Presto change-o:  if wife-beating is suddenly no longer defined as a violent crime, the violent crime rate will suddenly drop.

2.  The City’s Demographics Have Shifted

Elderly women rarely rob banks, steal cars, or sell crank.  I mention this because, as demographics change, crime rates change.  According to an article in The Economist, crime rates dropped not just in Los Angeles, but also in New York and Chicago, because those cities “lost more than 200,000 15- to 24-year-olds between 2000 and 2005.”  As The Economist explained, this demographic shift reduces crime in two ways:

1. Young people are not just more likely to commit crimes.  Thanks to their habit of walking around at night and their taste for portable electronic gizmos, they are also more likely to become its targets.
   

3.  Crime Is Down Throughout California

If you’re in a sailboat race, and your boat suddenly speeds up, it may have less to do with you, and more to do with the wind.  You have to look at the other boats before you jump to conclusions.  Likewise, if crime is down in one city, you need to look at crime in surrounding cities before holding a parade. 

Every single year between 1992 and 2005, the rate of violent crimes in California declined.  In 1992, there were 1,119.7 violent crimes per 100,000 people.  By 2005, the number dropped to 526 per 100,000.  In 2006, the figure rose slightly to 532.5 per 100,000.  (Click here for details.)

In neighboring San Bernardino County, the rate of violent crimes dropped from 568.9 per 100,000 in 2001 to 492.1 per 100,000 in 2005.  In Riverside County, the rate dropped from 597.5 to 448.4 during the same period.  In Orange County, the numbers likewise fell from 294.3 to 278.7.

These statistics indicate crime is down due to factors other than Villaraigosa.  For example, the three-strikes law is presumably removing more and more career criminals from California’s streets with each passing year.

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Bottom line:  don’t get too carried away by Villraigosa’s claims about reducing crime.  Challenge him to prove exactly how anything he has done has actually reduced crime.