The Message Matters

The Economy and Presidential Campaigns

The Message Matters tells the story of the last 60 years of presidential elections with particular attention given to the important role the nation’s economy plays in predicting winners long before the campaigns start.  Given the power of the economy and party identification in determining election winners, what role, if any, is left for the campaign and the candidates?  Using content data from the actual campaigns and survey data from the National Election Study, The Message Matters explains why, when, and how what candidates say on the campaign trail is important -- and when it can be decisive in the face of strong structural predictors of election outcomes.

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"Vavreck's creative theorizing and informative historical analysis will change the way political scientists think about presidential campaigns. While giving campaign strategists their overdue due, she also sheds invaluable light on how political contexts shape their strategies and their odds of success."--Larry M. Bartels, author of Unequal Democracy

"Lynn Vavreck's message matters. She explains how and when candidate messages can clarify distinctions and gain vote share over the course of a campaign. Moving beyond puerile arguments about whether campaigns matter, Vavreck identifies critical differences among issues--and between incumbents and challengers--that determine which messages are persuasive."--Samuel L. Popkin, University of California, San Diego

"I have not read a book of comparable elegance of argument and mastery of analysis in years. It is outstanding on three dimensions. In its combination of analytical depth and economy, it is a model for research on election campaigns. In its fusion of theory and empirics, it is a model for research in political science. In its principled, persistent, ingenious efforts to turn up evidence against its own hypotheses, it is a model for the social sciences."--Paul M. Sniderman, Stanford University

"Professor Vavreck shows, for the first time, how the economy plays for or against political candidates in the context of their campaigns. The work is a monumental theoretical and empirical achievement that promises to become a political science classic."--Michael S. Lewis-Beck, author of Economics and Elections

"A pathbreaking contribution to the study of American politics, it will be required reading for anyone doing serious work in the field of campaigns."--Raymond Duch, Nuffield College, University of Oxford