Before I start today's article, I would like to comment on the response I received last week to "The Beginning of the End of the Personal Computer." There were many readers who kindly took a moment to drop me a note and disagree with my assessment. Of course, I cannot see into the future. I can only make intelligent guesses with the added insight of having knowledge of how our own technology evolved.
Perhaps I should have emphasized two things more strongly. First, the PS2 is only the beginning of the end in my view. Personal computers will be around for many years. Secondly, it was pointed out that the PS2 cannot do many of the things a modern personal computer can do. In this instance, one must remember that most consumers will do "consumer" types of things, and people who continue to use computers as a hobby will continue to utilize them in a very technical way. One day, I think, personal computers will be sold as hobby items for the technically knowledgeable, much like astronomical telescopes or ham radio equipment is today. There will be a market, but it will pale compared to the vast consumer market which the PS2 and its descendants will generate.
Or so it would appear.
Today, I would like to engage in a discussion of the evolution of electronic mail and, of course, how it is affecting your culture.
You have probably reached the culmination of your development of electronic mail. I can say that because the natural development of text-based messaging depends on data rates. When data rates were low, the simple ability to send a text message was quite gratifying, and it typically occurred amongst technology developers and researchers in the early days of your ArpaNet, now the Internet. Polite, technical communication was in order.
Later, when you commercialized the Internet, the investment of capital to make more capital led to a rapid increase in the data rates available to hundreds of millions of commercial users. Today, in March of 2000, your data rates in many cases, with various digital transmission technologies, make it practical to transmit extensive graphics and short video streams attached to the message text.
The very next increment in the data rate is important. For in this case, as you move into the megabit per second data rates, both in the home and office as well as the mobile/wireless systems, real-time video transmission becomes practical. Accordingly, there will be, we hope, a major sociological shift associated with this next level of technology.
An explanation is in order.
In my many years of research at Princeton, my colleagues and I have had the opportunity to examine and evaluate text-based messaging. What we have found is that a significant percentage of messages we have (legally, I might add) intercepted, have fallen significantly outside the range of human norms in their social etiquette. That is to say, we have encountered messages, ostensibly sent as earnest transmissions, which, if delivered face to face, would be considered sufficient grounds for a physical assault in return. Why is this so?
We believe that text-based messaging affords the sender the opportunity to express a belief without the corresponding feedback generated in typical human speech, face to face. For example, if speaker A were to say, in person, to speaker B:
"I think you are ugly."
Speaker B might be expected to launch some kind of defensive volley. Something like:
"Oh, really? I can't stand the way you smell."
This sociological feedback mechanism, in fairly short order, lets speaker A know that he/she has offended the other being. Moreover, the offender must be prepared to deal with the consequences of that alienation. Perhaps speaker B will strike speaker A. Perhaps speaker B will seek legal, punitive remedies. Perhaps speaker B will never again talk to A. Or perhaps speaker B will tell everyone that speaker A is a despicable being. These feedback mechanisms tend to moderate the flow of offensive dialogue in normal human intercourse.
However, text-based email eliminates that mechanism in most respects. The sender can be confident that there will be no immediate physical interaction. Internet distances on your planet certainly guarantee that even if moved to severe anger, the temporal and physical separation provides handy insulation. But more importantly, the sender can evolve into a condition where, not having to pay an emotional price, the behavior becomes ingrained and inadvertent. This isolation from the emotions of the receiving party can lead to anti-social behavior, violence, and intentional neglect of other beings who may, from time to time, reach out for emotional contact.
The solution to this problem is something our technology went through and into which your technology is just now evolving. The natural development of data communication is to reconstitute those conditions that were in effect for thousands of years of human interaction. Intelligent, sentient beings tend to reach out to others, and so your technology has something to gain by supplying humans with something they desire most and have recently lost: a personal and sensory connection.
This is also why, we think, we are seeing more and more of you traveling with and using cell phones. The depersonalization of television and computers, at this point in time, combined with an increasingly isolated and technical work place, has bred the urge for humans to reach out for another human voice. Hence, the increasing utilization of cell phones, especially in the isolation of an automobile.
Right now, our prediction is that by about 2003 to 2004, most Internet users will be able to routinely connect to someone else with a video connection. The effect of seeing the other person's face and body language should become a soothing and moderating influence on interpersonal communications. Technology will evolve to the point where human intercourse returns to something much more like its original method, reinstating those highly refined and developed personal feedback mechanisms and body language.
In conclusion, I would urge all of you involved in the development of communication technology to keep this in mind. Larger displays, better cameras, and faster data rates lead to a more realistic representation of the other person, reinforcing the physical presence and accurate reading of visual cues. High speed video communication will greatly help your species in fighting violence by making every Internet interaction a personal, emotional and sensory one.
Accordingly, the phase out of text-based messaging is strongly urged, and we are happy to see that your technical development appears to be on that path.
Questions and Answers.
I have received many interesting and personal questions to which I cannot reply. For example, by treaty, I am not permitted to discuss religious issues in this column.
Q: What kinds of computers do you use? Do you have a Macintosh?
A: I have two computers. The first is a cranial implant that does several things. It is a memory and analysis aid, it contains a voice and data link to my orbiting ship, and it is a locator beacon so that both the U.S. Government and my shipmates know my location at all times. The second is an SGI 2100 workstation with IRIX 6.5.x, two processors, 2 GB of RAM, and about 2 TB of rotating storage. The U.S. Army has kindly supplied that system to allow me Internet (and Internet II) access, collaboration with my Princeton colleagues, e-mail and so on. I dictate these articles on the SGI.
Q: What kinds of weapons do your body guards carry?
A: I have to be careful here. Suffice it to say that one of the weapons they carry is of Cerran origin. It greatly amuses them.
Q: Do you eat food grown on Earth?
A: I can probably metabolize many more Earth foods than I actually care to eat. There are some fruits and nuts that I like, apples and pecans. The rest is grown or synthesized aboard my ship and sent down.
Q: Do you have transporters like on Star Trek?
A: That technology is beyond our capabilities. Most of our scientists doubt that they will ever be able to "transport" a living, conscious being. But then, there were some who never thought we would learn how to travel between stars at 20 times the speed of light.
Peace be with you.
NikksuhrueTan