With more than 71,000 people dead, buried, or missing in China following last Monday’s 7.9 magnitude earthquake [‘China in mourning over earthquake’, BBC Online Asia-Pacific News, May 19], and the 78,000 now thought to have perished in Myanmar (Burma) from the May 2 Cyclone ‘Nargis’ [‘Burma to mourn cyclone’s victims’, BBC Online Asia-Pacific News, May 19], I thought it might be helpful to provide a detailed historical context for our understanding of the size of such natural disasters. I thus present:

A Premier League of Deaths from Natural and Semi-Natural Causes

[in order of expected number of fatalities]

NH1 Supervolcano

No historic record. Prehistoric record only: Lake Toba, Indonesia, c. 75,000 years ago. Studies of mitochondrial DNA indicate a possible reduction, at the time, of the world human population (Homo erectus, H. neanderthalensis, and H. sapiens) to a few 1,000 individuals. Potentially the most serious threat, but on a long and a largely unpredictable time-scale. One of the most powerful eruptions in geological time was that of the Yellowstone Caldera, USA, about 2,000,000 years ago, an event which almost certainly caused an extended period of volcanic winter. Even more massive cataclysmic eruptions have occurred during the Earth’s 4.7 billion years. The Yellowstone Caldera may well be due for a further eruption.

H1 Pandemics and Epidemics (often aided by starvation and war)

Although less consistent overall than H2 Drought and Starvation (below), pandemics have recorded the highest known death tolls.

On average: epidemics kill fewer than 100,000 (e.g. typhus, The Balkans, 1542 [30,000]). Pandemics, however, are the greatest threat. Here are some historic examples, by number of fatalities:

1348-50 Black Death, Europe - one-third to one-half of the total population;

1918-19 ‘Spanish’ ‘Flu (strain H1N1), worldwide - more than 25 million (possibly as high as 50 million);

1353-54 Black Death, China - at least 25 million;

1518-20 Smallpox, Mexico - up to 15 million (compounded by war);

1917-22 Typhus Fever, Russia - up to 3 million;

1957-58 ‘Asian’ ‘Flu (strains H2N2 and H3N2), worldwide - more than 1 million.

End 2004: Between 36 and 44 million people living with the retrovirus HIV, the human immunodeficiency virus, of whom 25 million were in sub-Saharan Africa. The global estimates for new HIV infection in 2004 were 4.3 - 6.4 million. AIDS is thought to have originated in sub-Saharan Africa during the twentieth century, but it is now a true global epidemic. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that, worldwide, between 2.8 and 3.5 million people with AIDS died in 2004.

H2 Drought and Starvation (often aided and abetted by human failures and compounded by disease)

On average: fatalities fewer than 50,000, but there is a regular historic record of deaths in the millions, high figures more consistent than even those from H1 Pandemics and Epidemics (above). The most recent (by number of fatalities) include:

1936 Sichuan Province, Hebei, China - 5 million;

1921-22 Soviet Union - up to 5 million;

1900 India - up to 3.5 million (compounded by disease);

1928-30 N.W. China - over 3 million;

1941 Sichuan Province, China, - 2.5 million (compounded by war with Japan);

1965-67 India - 1.5 million.

H3 Floods and Tropical Cyclones

On average, fewer than 5,000 fatalities (e.g. the Johnstown Flood, Pennsylvania, 1889 [2,200]; North Sea Flood, Holland and UK, 1953 [2,000]). Many causes, including hurricanes and tidal surges, but also often compounded by the failure of dam structures and disease. The worst modern death tolls are all from Asia, and put the current Burmese cyclone event into perspective:

1931 The Huang He Flood, China - up to 4 million;

1970 The Bhola Cyclone, East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) - more than 500,000 + 100,000 missing;

1975 Henan Province, China - more than 200,000 (compounded by dam bursts).

H4 Earthquakes and Geologically-Triggered Tsunami

On average: fewer than 1,000 deaths. The top include (by number of fatalities):

1556 The Shaanxi Earthquake, China - c. 830,000;

2004 The Indian Ocean Earthquake and Tsunami - more than 350,000;

1976 The Tangshan Earthquake, China - 242,149;

1923 The Great Kanto Earthquake (Yokohama, Tokyo and Kanto Plain) - 140,000 (compounded by fires);

1755 Lisbon, Portugal - around 90,000 (compounded by fires).

H5 Volcanic Eruptions (excluding NH1 Supervolcano)

On average: fewer than 500 deaths, and normally always below 100,000. [For general interest and historical comparison, Vesuvius, in 79AD, killed c. 3,360. This was, however, a relatively high % of the population at the time.] The top include (by number of fatalities):

1815 Tambora, Indonesia - 92,000;

1883 Krakatoa, Indonesia - 36,417;

1902 Mount Pelée, Martinique - 29,025;

1985 Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia - 25,000.

H6 Impacts from Space

On average: fatalities fewer than 1.

Other than speculations about the extinction of the dinosaurs, etc., to date there has been only one recorded animal fatality from a meteorite, a dog, in Egypt, in 1911. The only confirmed human hit directly was Ann Hodges, Sylacauga, Alabama, in 1954 (by a 4 kg stone). In addition, we should note a mysterious impact event, the Tunguska Event, in Evenkia, Siberia, in 1908, which felled 60 million trees. The conventional interpretation is that this was caused by a meteor airburst.

General Lessons and Conclusions

Considering the above historical record, six main conclusions may be drawn:

1. (a)Asia is the most naturally-dangerous continent by far. Death tolls are often in the millions. The recent Burmese and Chinese disasters simply re-enforce this observation;
   

2. (b)Pandemic/epidemic disease and drought, compounded by starvation, have the greatest historic potential to kill in the millions. Hence the genuine concern over avian ‘flu;
   

3. (c)Since 1900, there have been at least 10 natural and semi-natural events with a death toll in the millions. Thus, despite their dreadfulness, neither the Burmese cyclone nor the Chinese earthquake enter into the big league of natural and semi-natural disasters. Even the 2004 Indian Ocean Earthquake and Tsunami did not equal the Bhola Cyclone of 1970, while Hurricane Katrina was very small, well below average, even for its own category of disasters;
   

4. (d)We inhabit an ever-restless Earth, a fact which will never change, and the only way to alleviate the death tolls is by constant vigilance and by living and building with these threats in mind. Vesuvius, for example, is expected to erupt on a Plinian scale some time during the next 10 -100 years. Why then is the Italian government allowing building all around the mountain, between Naples and Sorrento? At current population densities, the expected death toll is likely to be at the very top end of the volcanic-eruption scale;
   

5. (e)The greatest human tragedy is most likely to come from disease and a pandemic, especially from viruses;
   

6. (f)Media comment and reporting on disasters too often fail to take into account the historical context provided here. The abiding sin of ‘presentism’ pervades too much of the coverage. Attempts to employ such incidents to ‘prove’ tropes like ‘global warming’ are not only misguided, they are often downright immoral, and should be treated with disdain. In everything, it is vital to remember context, context, context. History is never bunk.
   

I have provided the above facts and information specifically so that ‘Global Warming Politics’ readers can correct people who try to employ natural and semi-natural disasters distastefully for their own agendas. In acknowledging present-day tragedies, we must never downplay the greater tragedies of the past. That would be an insult to all those who died and suffered in them.