[The nearly spotless Sun, April 24: SOHO Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) (24/04/2008: for complete image, see here)]

Today, Mr. Gradgrind is going to keep us up-to-date with facts about what is happening to the sun and to the atmospheric rise in CO2 and methane:

Where is Solar Cycle 24? Look very, very carefully at the dramatic image of the Sun today, April 24 [above; also NASA’s ‘Soho’ website]. Can you see the tiny, tiny brownish spot towards the top right? That is ‘Sunspot 992’, and it is fading [if you want to know how sunspots are numbered, see ‘Sunspot Numbers’ at the excellent spaceweather.com]. The next 11-year cycle of solar storms (known as Solar Cycle 24) was predicted to have begun in autumn, 2006, but it appears to have been seriously delayed [see: ‘Spotty Science’, November 21]. It was then expected to take off in March last year, and to peak in late-2011, or mid-2012. But, as you can see for yourself from the image, the Sun remains spotless, except for one fading spot. This delayed onset has somewhat confused the official Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel, leaving them evenly split on whether a weak or a strong period of solar storms now lies ahead.

Other scientists, however, are more concerned, including Phil Chapman, the first Australian to become a NASA astronaut [‘Sorry to ruin the fun, but an ice age cometh’ (The Australian, April 23)]. He writes:

“The scariest photo I have seen on the internet is www.spaceweather.com, where you will find a real-time image of the Sun from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, located in deep space at the equilibrium point between solar and terrestrial gravity.

What is scary about the picture is that there is only one tiny sunspot.

Disconcerting as it may be to true believers in global warming, the average temperature on Earth has remained steady or slowly declined during the past decade, despite the continued increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, and now the global temperature is falling precipitously.”

Chapman then infers an intriguing link:

“It is generally not possible to draw conclusions about climatic trends from events in a single year, so I would normally dismiss this cold snap as transient, pending what happens in the next few years.

This is where SOHO comes in. The sunspot number follows a cycle of somewhat variable length, averaging 11 years. The most recent minimum was in March last year. The new cycle, No.24, was supposed to start soon after that, with a gradual build-up in sunspot numbers.

It didn’t happen. The first sunspot appeared in January this year and lasted only two days. A tiny spot appeared last Monday but vanished within 24 hours. Another little spot appeared this Monday. Pray that there will be many more, and soon.”

He then explains why these elusive sunspots might just prove to be highly significant:

“The reason this matters is that there is a close correlation between variations in the sunspot cycle and Earth’s climate. The previous time a cycle was delayed like this was in the Dalton Minimum, an especially cold period that lasted several decades from 1790.

Northern winters became ferocious: in particular, the rout of Napoleon’s Grand Army during the retreat from Moscow in 1812 was at least partly due to the lack of sunspots.”

Finally, Chapman makes an impassioned plea for the ‘warmists’:

“... to take off the blinkers and give some thought to what we should do if we are facing global cooling instead.

It will be difficult for people to face the truth when their reputations, careers, government grants or hopes for social change depend on global warming, but the fate of civilisation may be at stake.

In the famous words of Oliver Cromwell, ‘I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken.’”

Brave words, indeed. So, folks, watch those spots!

CO2 And Methane: The Kyoto Protocol Is Succeeding As Ever!

Today, the BBC gives us the latest figures from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for the concentrations of CO2 and methane in the atmosphere [‘Hints of methane’s renewed rise’, BBC Online Science/Nature News, April 24].

Data show that CO2 concentrations rose by 2.4 parts per million (ppm) between 2006 and 2007, against an annual average rise (1979 - 2007) of 1.65 ppm. Concentrations now stand at 384 ppm.

Methane is also rising after a period of relative stability, by about 0.5% between 2006 and 2007.

There are some lovely paradoxes in these statistics. As Phil Chapman has reminded us [above], there has been no ‘global warming’ since 1998 [see also: ‘Ooops! Has Global Warming Stopped?’, February 3], and yet we are witnessing above average rises in ‘greenhouse’ gas concentrations. Moreover, methane concentrations normally rise during El Niño conditions, yet we are currently under the sway of the opposite phenomenon, La Niña.

Oh, I do like the real world. It is so much more unpredictable than Lara Croft models. And clearly, the Kyoto Protocol has been such a resounding success! We should have another round at once.

As I have always said: climate - the most complex, coupled, non-linear, semi-chaotic system known - will catch us all out.

Yet, I do hope for a little warming, please, rather than death by ice.

“Come on sunspots, do get your act together!”

“Brrr! Pass the Napoleon brandy!”

[Important note: please nobody look directly at the Sun - your eyes are too valuable]