Although it came as no surprise to the streetwise of Bangkok, the current political turmoil in Thailand may mystify stranded tourists and casual observers. Thailand wears many masks, but it works hard to ensure that the millions of visitors see only one, the ‘Land of Smiles’ [picture: the Democracy Monument, Bangkok]. In this, it is normally remarkably successful. Despite the devastation caused by the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami, in 2005 the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) recorded 714,489 visitors from the UK and Ireland alone, an 8.73% increase year-on-year.

But beneath the smiles, there is a dark underbelly that few observe.

Eighteen Military Coups: A Patron-Client State

Thailand is the ultimate patron-client state where powerful patrons, sometimes hidden puppet-masters, pull the strings of many lives. Even today, these patrons are a complex mix of lesser royalty, Chinese banking families, and military academy classmates. The constant coups reflected the ambitions of succeeding generations of officers, who had studied together, and who decided that it was their turn to benefit from the rice-barrel politics of Thailand.

The first challenge to this political pattern came in October, 1973 [my wife and I were there], when an expanding urban middle class, led by university students fearful for their jobs, mounted a revolution to break the stranglehold of the old ruling classes and corrupt generals. Unfortunately, it did not hold, and, on October 6, 1976, the army sent in paramilitaries to torture and kill, installing a conservative judge, Thanin Kraivixien, as prime minister. In October, 1977, the army staged yet another coup replacing Thanin with General Kriangsak Chomanand.

The 2006 coup removing the elected prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, was more complex politically than most of these earlier events, although there were worrying parallels.

Prem, an ardent royalist, was a close confidant of the revered King of Thailand, Bhumibol Adulyadej. Paradoxically, during the 1980s, Prem did much to halt disruption by coup. In April 1981, the ‘Young Turks’, a clique of upstart army officers, took control of Bangkok, dissolving the National Assembly. Prem called their bluff, and, when the King made his support for Prem obvious, loyalists recaptured Bangkok in a bloodless counter action. In 1983, elections were held to give Prem ‘civilian’ legitimacy, ushering in a period known as the ‘Premocracy’.

In 1988, new elections brought in a further former General, Chatichai Choonhavan, but he was quickly overthrown in 1991 by the last old-style coup, and, in 1992, strongman General Suchinda Kraprayoon became prime minister over a coalition of parties, only to try to rule in traditional military style. Hundreds of thousands of people, mainly the middle classes, took to the streets in the biggest demonstrations ever seen in Bangkok. Some were killed as military units strove to keep power; the Navy mutinied, and Thailand stood on the edge of civil war. The King brilliantly forced Suchinda’s resignation, and guided in a period of democracy, which staggered on, through corruption and the Asian financial collapse of 1997, to the election in 2001 of the now also overthrown wealthy telecommunications magnate, Thaksin [below], leader of the Thai Rak Thai (‘Thai Love Thai’) Party, and until recently owner of Manchester City Football Club.

Somjai Phagapasvivat of Bangok’s Thammasat University argued that this latest coup was different: “Before, it was done in the interests of the military. This time, it was a necessary pre-emptive strike given the violent polarisation of Thai society.” Certainly Thaksin has enraged middle-class Bangkok, whilst reinforcing his base among the rural poor. The last straw was the tax-free sale of his family’s stake in the giant telecommunications Shin Corporation to a Singaporean state holding company. He has now been sentenced in absentia to two years imprisonment.

A Deeply-Divided Country: Democracy At Stake

The truth is that the country is riven, with the old alliance of lesser royalty, the Bangkok elite, Chinese banking families, and military academy classmates making a last ditch stand against the democracy that has brought the likes of Thaksin to power. The loosely-structured People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD), founded by media mogul, Sondhi Limthongkul (สนธิ ลิ้มทองกุล), whose yellow-shirted supporters are currently occupying the main Bangkok airports of Suvanabhumi and Don Mueang, provides the foot soldiers of this elite grouping. What is more, and despite the Party’s name, democracy is the last thing on their minds; some are calling for the suspension of  ‘one man, one vote’, and for an appointed parliament of those deemed worthy to hold political office. Certain commentators have even employed the term ‘fascistic’ to describe them.

What Will Happen?

What is going to happen? Thaksin has not given up the fight by any means, despite his present exile in the Middle East, and he recently staged a rally of over 70,000 of his red-shirted supporters in a sports stadium, where he addressed his followers by telephone. In addition, he has already a third political party in place, called the Puea Thai, in case legal action is taken against the PPP, while Somchai’s government has moved temporarily out of Bangkok, and has taken refuge in the safer North, in Chiang Mai.

And, as ever, the military are waiting in the wings, led by army chief, General Anupong Paojinda. He has called for new elections.

Thailand thus stands yet again on the brink of civil war. There are few smiles. The country is bitterly divided between a coalition of the noveau riche and the rural poor and an ancien régime desperate to hold onto power and privilege at all costs; between a Northern rural population and a southern Bangkok elite.

In the past, the much-loved King was subtly able to employ his power to resolve such divisions long before too much damage had been done. But the King is now nearly 81 years old and frail, and the world is changing.

If negotiations fail, we could well have another army coup, the nineteenth since 1932. But, if this happens, it is unlikely to resolve much in the long run. The divisions are now too deep and raw, and those who have tasted full democracy are not going to give up easily.

Sadly, yellow-shirted, middle class demonstrators, waving pictures of the King, yet who are trying to limit democracy for their own class and agenda, coupled with the possibility of another army coup, are probably not the best images for a modern-day Thailand.

They are a sign that Thailand has not quite grown up, not yet matured politically. Democracy means that you have to be as good a loser as a winner.

We must hope that the present crisis does not lead to bloodshed.

And, perhaps, in the end, H.M. the King might still manage to complete the great work of 1932, of establishing a truly democratic monarchy.

We can only wish this complex and fascinating country well.