What is a flu pandemic and why should I prepare for it?
Influenza is a virus. It can be highly contagious. It can infect people and some animals. There are many different types of influenza. The normal influenza that spreads among people every year is called H3N2. There is another type of influenza virus call H5N1 (or bird flu). This virus spreads easily among birds and has killed large numbers of them. The H5N1 virus is not highly contagious among humans yet, but it has infected over 250 people and killed more than half of them.
Some scientists and health officials are concerned that H5N1 will become as infectious as H3N2. If this happens, a pandemic will begin. In a pandemic, it is expected that 20-50% of the world's people will become infected. We don't know what the fatality rate would be, but so far, over 50% of the people infected with H5N1 have died. We hope that the fatality rate will decrease if/when a H5N1 pandemic begins, but the leading flu scientists have said that it doesn't have to. If a H5N1 pandemic occurs with it's current fatality rate, 50 million people may die in the US alone. Worldwide, the death toll may be one billion people. Only nuclear war between the major powers has the potential to kill more people. Even if the death rate drops 2%, which occurred in 1918 with another flu virus, 2 million Americans are expected to die.
No-one can predict with certainty when or if a particular subtype of flu will cause a pandemic, but many scientists believe the risk of an H5N1 pandemic is real and could occur at any time. This virus has been mutating at a very high rate and shows signs of adapting to humans. Although there are other flu viruses that could cause a pandemic, H5N1 is the most likely the candidate. You can read more about H5N1 at the PFI Science page.
Some people assume that modern Science has a cure for a pandemic virus and the US government will be responsible for managing the response to a pandemic. Unfortunately, that is not true. Although there are vaccines for "regular" flu, it is unlikely that there will be a vaccine for the first "wave" of a pandemic. This is because it will take at least 6 months to produce a significant amount of vaccine. There are drugs called antivirals that may help people survive an H5N1 infection, but they must be given very quickly after symptoms start or they don't work. There are not enough of these drugs for more than a fraction of the population. There are already signs that H5N1 may be evolving resistance to these drugs.
Without vaccines to prevent disease or drugs to treat it, the only way to be certain of surviving a pandemic is to avoid infection. There are two general strategies: shelter-in-place (SIP) and the use of personal protective equipment (PPE). SIP means to stay in your home for the duration of a local outbreak of the pandemic virus - typically 6 - 12 weeks. The federal government has made it clear that it will not be providing food or other supplies to cities in the event of a pandemic. Thus, it is up to each citizen to stockpile sufficient supplies (food, water and medicine, etc.) for this time period. Given the lethality of the virus and the uncertainty of the length of a local outbreak, many concerned citizens have determined that at least 12 weeks of preparations are necessary. Further, large scale absenteeism and death among essential workers may result in disruptions of production and transportation. Thus, some are preparing for even longer time periods. At some point, it will be necessary to leave your home. If you are uncertain whether the virus is still circulating in your community, it would be prudent to wear appropriate PPE. You can read about how to protect yourself at the PFI Prepare page.
BBC video that provides scientific background regarding pandemics and H5N1 combined with a plausible scenario describing how a pandemic might play out.