The Resilient Economy - Part 5 - Transportation
One of the chief weaknesses of the current economic system as relates to a catastrophic event like a high CFR pandemic is our Just-in-Time (JIT) delivery system. Anyone who has spent some time at the Delaware Gap on I-80 cannot help but be impressed by the constant stream of semi-trailer trucks carrying food and other goods into the New York City area. What happens if that stream is interrupted? How long can NYC go without round-the-clock deliveries? Opinions vary, but the fact that NYC (and other megacities) are almost completely dependent on food and necessities produced elsewhere is not in dispute. Empty grocery stores would probably be noticed first and would likely pose a severe risk of unrest within days of disruption of transportation.
Almost all vehicles are currently dependent on fossil fuels. The extraction, refinement and delivery of these fuels is the result of a complex process. A high CFR pandemic or other catastrophic event would almost certainly disrupt this process. What alternatives do we have and which are best-suited for a resilient economy?
Hydrogen-fuel-cell-powered vehicles have some advantages over petroleum products. Hydrogen can be produced within the United States and will never run out. However, this technology suffers from some of the same disadvantages as fossil fuels. A large, centralised production facility is necessary to produce the fuel. The distribution of the fuel to local pumping stations would pose the same potential failure points as diesel or gasoline. This technology might best be suited for the military with refueling stations and hydrogen tanker trucks under their control.
Maglev trains rely on a large electrical power source for their energy. Thus, they could get their power from large solar and wind installations and nuclear power (see Energy in the Electric Century). Although the few currently in service are primarily used to carry passengers, they could be used to carry cargo into cities. The disadvantage of this system is that it still relies on a functioning Grid.
Although there are many good arguments in favor of mass transportation, resilience in the face of a major catastrophe is not one of them. In a pandemic, the last thing you would want is essential personnel trying to get to work in packed subway trains or buses. Private transportation would the safest choice in this situation. Electric cars are currently in production. One of them, the Aptera, has a range of 100 miles on a single charge . An individual who had solar panels at his home would be able to supply his own "fuel" for his transportation. This would represent the highest level of resilience as it would be the most decentralised solution.
In a catastrophic event, transportation will be one of the major challenges. A shift to electric and hydrogen (where necessary) as energy sources would greatly enhance national security. The military has considerable experience in logistics and would be ideally suited to transportating essential goods like food and medicine. Essential workers with their own energy supply and electric cars would be able to continue to transport themselves to work without risking contamination in route.
We know the current system will fail if stressed. It has already failed in small-scale events like hurricanes. We need a new system.
Saturday, March 14, 2009
