"Call in the Mercenaries! Get to the Safe Room, Now!"
The UN plans for security nightmare during a pandemic.
Many of the flu boards devote what some would see as an inordinate amount of time to worst case security scenarios. Although I would prefer that more time be spent discussing how we can help support local law enforcement with community patrols, etc., I confess that security is one of my big concerns. And it looks like the UN shares this concern.
Here's what the UN is expecting in the event of a pandemic with a 30% attack rate and 1% mortality rate (From Table/Annex XYZ: Risk and threat analysis for Avian and Human Influenza and mitigation actions in …country…):
Health Services. Collapsed. Only some emergency non-influenza related care possible.
Essential Services. Absenteeism rate >50%. Many services collapsed.
Security/panic. Incidences, martial law.
External material assistance. No.
External decision making assistance. No.
OK, this doesn't sound good. So what does the UN advise staff do for security?
• Maintain low key profile regarding stockpiles; information on whereabouts should be kept
secure
• Develop contacts with private police/guard companies in case UN guards do not go to
work
• Prepare evacuation plans taking into account pandemic situation
• Identify and secure a refuge of last resort, with adequate supplies of water, food,
sanitation, and means of protected transport
Translation: Don't count on the Blue Helmets to save you. They may be dead or AWOL. Make arrangements with reliable mercenaries to protect you from locals who may see you as a source of supplies. Make a safe room that you can hole up in while you wait for a helicopter to come and get you the hell out.
Nothing here I would disagree with. Seems like prudent planning to me. Just wish they'd publicise this a bit more. Everyone should understand what will happen in a severe to very severe pandemic.
More information at Preparing for the Pandemic (hat-tip Snowy Owl at Flu Trackers) and Planning and Coordination (hat-tip RobT20 at PFI).
Friday, March 23, 2007