Pandemic Lessons from Hurricane Ike
The following are lessons I derived from this thread: Hurricanes Gustav, Hanna, Ike, Kyle, Norbert and Omar at PFI_Forum. Thanks to all the participants in this thread for their input, especially our friends in Texas who reported first hand on their experiences.
1. Official warnings will not be accurate.
Although we are all familiar with the "certain death" warning from the National Weather Service, not everyone got this warning. Instead, some people apparently received false assurances until it was too late.
Though its eye remained far out to sea, the storm’s outer winds pushed a flood of water across the peninsula early in the morning on Sept. 12, trapping more than 100 people who had been assured they would have time to leave, residents said.
2. Expect many false alarms.
Many people dismissed warnings about Hurricane Ike because they had been warned before about other hurricanes that turned out not to be that severe. Although we all want perfect warnings, this is an unrealistic expectation. If you really want a warning for when things are bad, you must accept that there will be false alarms.
3. No matter how good your SIP plans are, be ready to bug-out.
Even if you are perfectly prepared for a pandemic, some natural disaster may occur for which it is impossible to prepare other than to leave. Hurricanes, tornados, wildfires and earthquakes won't take vacations because a pandemic is in progress. *Everyone* needs a bug-out bag.
4. You will be glad you prepped.
Many PFI members who experienced Ike commented on how good they felt about having preps. They were in much better shape than those who did not prep. The standard advice for 3 days of preps for all hazards is nonsense, even for a discrete event like a hurricane. Some people were without services in the Houston area for a month after Ike.
5. FEMA won't be coming to the rescue.
Although FEMA's response was better for Hurricane Ike than for Katrina, it was still slow and somewhat disorganised. Given the problems they have responding to a single event, it is unrealistic to think that they will make a meaningful impact during a pandemic that is striking many cities at the same time.
6. The elderly and disabled will be abandoned.
During Hurricane Katrina, residents in a nursing home were abandoned - they all died. After Hurricane Ike, the elderly were again abandoned. Fortunately, in this case the authorities were notified in time and no-one died. In the chaos and confusion of a pandemic, I don't think we can count on the authorities coming to the rescue of everyone who cannot take care of themselves.
Texas Gov. Rick Perry said an investigation was planned into why staff at a senior citizen housing complex apparently left residents without care during Hurricane Ike.
7. Be prepared to help the foolish (especially if they have kids).
There were many examples of the prepared (including PFI members) who helped the unprepared. No matter how hard hearted we may have decided we will be when TSHTF, few of us will be able to resist trying to help the innocent, especially kids. So, store extra supplies for charity.
8. The media will be controlled by the government.
Mayor Lyda Ann Thomas on Monday ordered all city employees not to talk to news reporters. She did not say when that order would be lifted.
[snip]
Daily News reporters who tried to speak to city employees were denied and told no one could talk except for the mayor and city manager.
“It’s the worst thing the city could do. Those who will suffer most are evacuees,” Publisher Dolph Tillotson said in a statement via text message. “The media will have to turn to other sources that might be less reliable. I can’t imagine a dumber move under these extreme circumstances.”
[snip]
Reporters were also forbidden from visiting areas on the far West End, Thomas said. She did not explain why.
9. Live near vital services.
Hospitals, fire stations, police stations, grocery stores etc. received top priority for power restoration and other relief efforts in the Houston area. Neighborhoods in close proximity to these essential buildings often got power and other services before other neighborhoods.
10. Don't live in an area with frequent natural disasters.
A natural disaster can occur anywhere, but some cities appear in the headlines more often than others. During a pandemic, no-one will rush to your city's rescue if it experiences a hurricane or other natural disaster.
11. If there is no law enforcement, there will be looters.
For Hurricane Gustav, there were many National Guard prepositioned in Louisianna. They came under fire and repelled the looters:
Gov. Bobby Jindal says members of the National Guard came under fire this morning in Ville Platte, La.
"Sometime after midnight, somewhere between two and three criminals, we believe they were attempting to loot those supplies, actually opened fire," he says. "They fired about five or six shots at the National Guardsmen. The MPs, the military police, that were there took shelter behind their military vehicle. They returned fire with their M-16 rifles. The criminals fled."
No one was injured in the exchange of gunfire, he says.
The gunmen are at large. "I would just ask our people to continue to be vigilant about their safety," he says.
Update at 11:24 a.m. ET: Rick Breitenfeldt, a National Guard spokesman, tells USA TODAY that the soldiers were protecting three 18-wheelers carrying hurricane-related supplies in Evangeline Parish.
In Galveston, looting occurred after Hurricane Ike.
Looters were after copper wiring in damaged buildings and had pulled it from power poles on Bolivar Peninsula. Police accused one group of stealing the aluminum handrails off the steps leading from the seawall to the beach.
People reported doors forced open with crowbars and apartments looted in one downtown loft building.
12. Generators and candles will kill.
... the Harris County Medical Examiner's Office put a name on another of the county's eight storm-related deaths: Lisa Ann Weaver, 58, of Tomball, who died in a Sept. 13 house fire where candles were being used because of power failure.
Police also identified three people who appear to have died of carbon monoxide poisoning in a southwest Houston home in Fort Bend County.
The three found Sept. 18 at 4973 Ridgecreek were identified as Rekesha Hopkins, 35, Kaven Randle, 43, and Rogers Smith III , 29, HPD homicide Detective Steve Straughter said.
Straughter said preliminary autopsy results indicated the three died from fumes from a gasoline-powered generator. Straughter said the generator was in the attached garage of the house and the garage door was shut.
13. Generators are not a long term solution.
Finding sufficient gasoline to keep generators running was a problem for many in the Houston area after the hurricane. In a pandemic, longer term disruptions of energy supplies will require sustainable sources of energy like wind turbines or solar panels.
14. If you die, no-one may know about it.
County officials warned that some of Ike’s victims might never be found.
We still don't know how many people died from Hurricane Ike and one gets the impression that politicians are not especially interested in finding out what happened to the missing. In a high CFR pandemic, there will be mass burials. Keeping records of who is buried where will not be a priority. Official estimates of the dead are likely to be inaccurate, if they are made at all. During the 1918 pandemic, publishing information about the deaths was considered bad for morale and was often surpressed.
15. It will be worse than you think.
A number of PFI members who lived through Hurricane Ike commented that as much as they had prepared, the psychological impact of so much misery was still difficult to take.
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
