The Resilient Economy - Part 7 - The Military
One of the most sensitive subjects when discussing a potential catastrophic event like a pandemic is the role of the military. In the past, the Posse Comitatus Act was interpreted to mean that the US military would not play a role in domestic incidents. However, after Katrina, it was realised that no other instrument of the US government is sufficient to maintain order and provide logistic support during a major catastrophe (globalsecurity.com). NORTHCOM is preparing to play a potentially significant role in coping with consequences of a pandemic (defenselink). The ACLU and other groups concerned with civil liberties have expressed concern about the role of the military during a pandemic (Reuters).
Currently, the overall role of the military in a pandemic or other major catastrophe has not been well-defined, at least publicly. Although some planning has begun, a well-thought out, comprehensive approach to ensure continuity of function and coordinate with civilian entities has not been publicly described. Below, I make some suggestions on how to accomplish these goals.
The first priority of the military must be to maintain its own ability to function effectively. During WWI, the US military did not handle influenza pandemic correctly (The Great Influenza: The Epic Story of the Greatest Plague in History by John M. Barry, 2004). Advice to quarantine soldiers and camps was ignored with disastrous results. Many US servicemen died needlessly. Further, the military itself became a vector for the spread of the disease. To prevent this tragedy from recurring, the US military must, like all other sectors in the US economy, strive for self-sufficiency.
The US military is one of the largest users of fossil fuels (Energy Bulletin). This is unlikely to change in the near future. Thus, bases should have substantial fuel depots sufficient to provide fuel for all vehicles for at least one year, if possible. For the longer term, all US controlled oil should be reserved for use by the military should foreign sources be denied. Basically, all the off-shore oil people are arguing about should be considered one big national fuel depot for the US military. As I've suggested before, sacrificing national defense so someone can drive their canary yellow Hummer four blocks to buy twinkies is not a good strategy. The development of hydrogen fuel for military vehicles should be advanced as rapidly as possible. Although solar and wind power should be developed near bases where practical, these are not likely to provide the 100% assurance of power necessary for the military. Small nuclear reactors would provide a stable, reliable source of energy for military bases.
There's an old saying that an Army marches on its stomach. Keeping the large number of military and civilians who live on or near bases fed will be a major challenge during a pandemic or other catastrophe. This can partially be alleviated by storing MREs on base, but this is an expensive and ultimately limited strategy. Bases in agricultural areas should consider forming relationships with local farmers to ensure their own food supply. In normal times, buying food locally would provide troops with nutritious meals while providing support to the local economy and building good will. Bases with no local agriculture should consider creating large hydroponics centers. During an emergency, having access to local food could mean the difference between self-sufficiency and dangerous reliance on long distance transportation.
Large bases should strive for self-sufficiency in as many mission critical areas as possible. These would include water, sanitation and health care. Any necessary items that cannot be provided on site should be stockpiled in sufficient quantities to last at least one year. If a base serves as point of distribution for other units, for example a naval base, then such a base should also have sufficient goods to supply ships or other dependent groups for at least a year.
By becoming self-sufficient, military bases can protect themselves from infection in case of a pandemic by self-sequestration. But what about their role in protecting the civilian population? There are several important objectives the military should plan for:
1. Movement restrictions. This is the only strategy that we can be certain will work to stop a pandemic from spreading. Ideally, the military will prevent a pandemic from entering the US by enforcing air and sea port closures. If local outbreaks do occur, the best way to stop the internal spread of the virus is by enforcing mandatory, protective sequestration of the affected population until the outbreak is stamped out. Although it would be best if this was enforced by local police, National Guard and other units of the military may be necessary to provide back-up.
2. Transportation. If widespread outbreaks occur, there are certain to be many shortages of critical goods. In order to keep these goods flowing to where they are needed, the military could be used to provide protection for convoys of truckers or to transport the goods themselves.
3. Law enforcement. Although local law enforcement should always be preferred, as Katrina and other emergencies have demonstrated, they are sometimes not enough. Again, the military role should be as back-up for local police, not as primary responders.
Any use of the military for domestic events will be controversial. However, advocates of civil liberties should carefully consider all scenarios before rejecting this possibility. In any catastrophic event, local law enforcement is likely to overwhelmed, as occurred in Katrina. In that disaster, the military was called in after all other options had been exhausted. Because there had been no planning for this, precious time was lost and people likely died as a result. Further, because most military personnel are not trained to deal with domestic incidents, there could have been miscommunications that would have lead to still more tragedy. During Katrina, we were fortunate that the Commander who led the relief effort showed great sensitivity to this possibility and issued the appropriate orders. We may not be that lucky the next time. Better to discuss the role of the military during a catastrophe in public so that all involved understand and approve of the steps that will be taken. And that includes both law enforcement and the general public.
Once again, honest communication with the public about what will happen during a high CFR pandemic or other major catastrophe is required so that they understand why draconian actions will be necessary and prepare to mitigate the effects of these actions on their families. We haven't seen that yet. The clock is ticking.
Saturday, April 4, 2009
