Coaches’ Corner Show Notes
Episode 18 - Statistics That Matter
Friday, June 15, 2007
There are a lot of details on “statistics that matter” that need to filled in. I hope these show notes are useful.
In the podcast, I mentioned that Pythagoreom formula to calculate winning percentage based on average runs per game. This is really called the “Pythagoreom Expectation” for winning percentage. Click here for some background on this from Baseball Prospectus.
The formula for winning percentage is as follows:
Winning % = (Runs Scored)^2 divided by ((Runs Scored)^2+(Runs Allowed)^2))
This formula is incredibly accurate in projecting winning percentage at all levels of baseball.
At the team level, there are 3 statistics that matter:
Win 3 innings
Have 15 Quality At Bats
Limit Walks + Errors < 6
These are by far the three most important elements of winning baseball and teaching players the right way to play baseball. This is the holy grail of statistics.
Winning 3 innings teaches players to compete relentlessly, inning by inning, at bat by at bat and pitch by pitch. It is really hard to win 3 innings in a game.
There are 4 ways to have quality at bats.
1 - Hit the ball hard, regardless of outcome. All line drives are hard hits. Hard hits also include hard hit groundballs and flyballs that force outfielders to retreat on the ball.
2 - Draw a walk
3 - Execute - sacrifice, advance the runner to 3rd, get a run home with less that 2 outs, hit & runs, squeeze, etc..
4 - Any at bat that consumes 6 or more pitches is a quality at bat - regardless of outcome.
A quality at bat is worth between .4 and .5 runs. Using the Pythagoreom Expectation, if you want to increase your winning percentage from 50% to 67%, you need to score 1 more run per game. This means your team needs to produce just 2-3 more quality at bats per game. Now, that is something that players can focus on and control - IF they understand what a quality at bat is.
Finally, walks + errors are the defensive mirror image to quality at bats. When you walk batters and allow runners to reach base on errors, then you are giving away outs. Any time you give away an out - with a walk or an error - on average you cost your team .4-.5 runs.
So, if you want to reduce runs allowed by one run per game. Then, you need to reduce walks + errors by 2-3.
Those are the statistics that matter for the overall team. This is how you can teach baseball and win games at the same time.
For individual players, the statistics that matter focus on things that are more within the players control.
Here is what I use:
On-base percentage - this the only conventional measure that I care about. You need to get on base in order to score runs. A good target in youth baseball is >450.
Quality At Bats - this was explained above. The target should be >60% quality at bats, with at least 40% coming from hard hit balls. These numbers are hard to achieve. Most players will be at 50% and 30% respectively.
Walk:Strikeout Ratio - this is the only measure on pitch selection that I have found that can be used effectively in youth baseball (this is because there is no record of pitch location). If a player has good pitch selection, he should be swinging at strikes and taking balls. A player without good pitch selection takes strikes and swings at balls. I want players to walk 1.5x more than they strikeout. Strikeouts are OK, as long as the hitter is aggressively swinging at good pitches and laying off bad pitches. You’ll notice that players that are struggling will be striking out more than they walk. This is a pitch selection problem.
Runs Created is the ultimate measure of hitting production. It is a complicated formula that takes into account the relative value of different at bat outcomes. Click here and click here if you are interested in the background and details of how this formula is applied in professional baseball. If you want to use outcome based performance measures, then throw batting average out the window and use Runs Created.
Over the years, I have made some adjustments to the Runs Created formula for youth baseball. Here is my version of the formula, based on a 6-7 inning game.
RC =((Hits+Walks)*(Total Bases + ROE) + .26(Walks + ROE) + .52*SAC)/PA
RC/6 innings = RC / ((PA-BB-ROE-H)*18)
RC/7 innings = RC / ((PA-BB-ROE-H)*21)
ROE = reach on error (in mlb, the hitter is not given credit for ROE. In youth baseball, a lot of errors are created by hard hit balls and hustling runners. So, hitters should get credit for ROE)
Walks = includes walks and HBP
PA = plate appearances
Again, Quality at Bats are by far the most important stat to use for youth players. If you must use a outcome based measure than use On-Base % and Runs Created. They are much more meaningful than batting average.
For pitchers, the statistics that matter are:
% Strikes - because we want pitchers to keep the game moving and force the other team to swing the bat.
Pitches per inning (3 outs) = because we want our pitchers to be efficient and protect their arms
Opposing team On-Base % - Calculated as (walks + hits)/batters faced
Runs Allowed per batter faced - what percentage of batters that the pitcher faces end up crossing the plate. This is a lot more meaningful that ERA for youth pitchers.
At the more advanced level, the following measures are important:
% First Pitch Strikes
% of batters that are on base or out in 3 pitches
% Offspeed strikes
Here are the target measures for the statistics that matter:
For hitters:
Good at bat %, Target >60%
OB % > .500
Walk:Strikeout Ratio >1.0
For pitchers:
% Strikes >65%
Pitches per inning <15
Runs Allowed per Batter Faces >.200
Opposing Team On-Base % >.350
First pitch strikes >67%
On or out in 3 pitches > 50%
Offspeed Strikes > 50%
Episode 17 - Pitch Selection From Pitcher’s Perspective
Friday, June 1, 2007
We focus on pitch selection - from a pitcher's perspective. Our guest is Matt Whiteside, former big leaguer with 17 years of professional baseball experience. Matt talks about the "on or out in 3" approach to pitching. This is a great interview for every youth coach and pitcher.
The underlying principle is that hitting is the most difficult task in sports. So, pitchers need to challenge hitters with well-located fastballs. The odds are in the pitchers’ favor.
Episode 16 - Pitch Selection from Hitter’s Perspective
Thursday, May 31, 2007
We focus the entire episode on pitch selection, from the hitter's perspective. Steve Hacker, former college baseball All-American and professional hitter with the Braves and Twins organizations, is our guest once again. This is a great interview, full of information that coaches can directly apply to help their hitters improve. Steve emphasizes the importance for hitters to be aggressive on pitches they can hit hard, and to have the discipline to lay off pitches they cannot hit hard. There is a lot of emphasis on the first 2-3 pitches of an at-bat. The key message for hitters is to be aggressive, especially early in the count when pitchers try to get ahead with a fastball.
Episode 15 - Coaching Behavior and Statistics That Matter
Tuesday, May 15, 2007
As a coach, controlling your behavior (what you say, how you say it and what you do) can be an incredibly effective coaching tool. If your behavior during competition complements your team mission and philosophy, then good things will follow. However, if there are conflicts between your behavior and the team mission, then things get pretty complicated.
I have personally spent a lot of time researching and thinking through the application of statistics to youth baseball. This started with a lot of analysis and reading in the field of Sabermetrics, as applied to professional baseball. But, several years ago, Josh Levey and I were coaching a team together and decided to start developing the field of “sabermetrics for youth baseball”. For youth baseball, you want to develop statistical measures that accomplish three goals:
1. Teach players to play the game the right way using statistics
2. Focus on statistics that were within the control of the player
3. Still provide a means of measuring which players are doing well and which players need improvement.
We just start scratching the surface of this topic in Episode 15. There is a lot of material on both individual and team stats that accomplish all three of these goals.
For the most part, traditional baseball stats are not good for youth baseball. First, there is too much inconsistency in applying the definitions of stats like hits vs. error, RBI’s and ERA. Second, these traditional stats require literally hundreds of at-bats and innings pitched to be statistically significant.
For example, right now, Albert Pujols is hitting .160, two weeks into the 2007 season. But, what sane person would drop him from the lineup, or even move him from the #3 spot to the #8 spot. But, he already has 40-50 at bats, which in youth baseball could be 1/2 the season. Most youth coaches would have Albert Pujols sitting on the bench right now because they do not understand that stats like batting average are only relevant after 50-100 at bats, when all the bloop singles and line drive outs finally balance each other out.
The most important offensive stat for any player less that 18 years old is simple - it is Quality At Bat %. There are four ways to get a Quality At Bat:
1 - hit the ball hard, regardless of outcome. A line drive caught by the centerfielder is a Quality At Bat. A bloop single over he first baseman’s head is NOT a quality at bat (unless it fits the criteria below).
2 - take a walk
3 - execute a sacrifice bunt, hit & run, advance the runner, a squeeze or score the runner from 3rd.
4 - force the pitcher to throw more than 5 pitches, regardless of outcome. At 16u+, this maybe needs to be adjusted to 6 pitches. But, for 12-16u players, any time the hitter forces the pitcher to throw more than 5 pitches, it is a quality at bat. So, any 3-2 count is a quality at bat. A pop-up on the first pitch is the opposite of a quality at bat.
The definition of Quality At Bat is totally consistent with what you should be teaching young hitters to do:
1 - hit the ball hard, consistently
2 - lay off bad pitches,
3 - execute in key situations, like advance a runner or scoring a runner from 3rd.
Hitters should be encouraged to achieve quality at-bats in 50-67% of their plate appearances.
Of course it is possible to achieve more than one of the criteria on any given at bat. For example, a hitter could hit the ball hard on a 3-2 count and score a runner from 3rd with 2 outs. This would be great at bat based on three of the four criteria. But, the batter only gets credit for one Quality At Bat in this scenario.
For pitchers, we want them to do two things. First, we want them to get outs. Or, said another way, we want them to prevent baserunners. Without baserunners, the opposing team cannot score. Second, we want them to throw strikes. This keeps their pitch count down, keeps the defense in the game and makes the game a lot more fun for everyone.
So, the two statistical measures that are the most important are:
1. Opposing team on-base pct. This is (walks + hits) divided by number of batters faced. Errors are not counted against the pitcher. Pitchers should hold opposing team on-base % to less than .350.
2. % of pitches thrown for strikes. This is simply (strikes + foul balls + balls in play) divided by total number of pitchers. Pitchers should throw 60-75% of pitches for strikes in youth baseball. In youth baseball, it is rare to throw around a hitter.
More on this topic in future episodes.
I you want to read some more on these subjects, here are some article links to my coaching blog.
Episode 14 - Effective Bullpen Sessions
Tuesday, May 1, 2007
You can find out more about Matt Whiteside and All-Star Performance at http://all-starperformance.net.
A good way to learn the routine of a good pre-game bullpen session is to get to a major league or AAA game a little early. Carefully watch the pitcher and catcher work the bullpen session. Count the pitches and pitch types. Are they off the windup or stretch?
Matt’s rule thumb for pitch limits and bullpen sessions is great:
Pitch limit = 5 times pitchers age (I think this only works for kids though, because Matt is 38, and I don’t think he’s ready to throw 190 pitches).
Bullpen session = 1/2 of pitch limit.
So, for a 15 year old player - a 75 pitch limit and 35-40 pitch bullpen sessions make sense.
You can learn more about the Double Goal Coach at http://positivecoach.org. You can order the book from that website, or it is usually carried at Borders.
Episode 13 - Effective Batting Practice Sessions
Sunday, April 15, 2007
Thanks to Steve Hacker for another great interview. Back in Episode #3, Steve provided lots of great information on hitting work for the offseason and preseason.
Steve talks a lot about Missouri State and Coach Guttin. Coach Guttin has built one of the top D-1 baseball programs in the country. Click here to learn more about Coach Gutin.
Episode 12 - Pitcher Fielding and Developing Players for the Next Level
Sunday, April 1, 2007
I went back and looked at my select team’s stats over the past 100 games. After a E-1 (pitcher’s fielding error), the next batter reached base 70% of the time! This compares to an average On-Base Pct of around 45-50%. In baseball terms, this is a huge statistical difference.
The impact of pitchers’ errors are multiplied, primarily because the pitcher loses focuses and ends up walking or throwing a fat pitch to the next batter. Suddenly, the innocent groundball back to the pitcher turns into a big inning.
If you need help with teaching the fundamentals of pitcher fielding, then I recommend that you contact a local pitching instructor or college baseball coach. For a modest amount of money, they can spend 1 hour with your team teaching the fundamentals of pitcher fielding. That way, you can learn along with your team, and then be able to continue the practice reps for the remainder of the season.
Any pitcher that has played at college level or above will be well versed in PFP fundamentals. So, if you need help in this area, reach out to these experts in your community.
Regarding developing players for the next level, I failed to make a point during the podcast that I would like to emphasize. When your players eventually try out for the “next level”, no one will care what their youth baseball win-loss record was, or which tournaments they won. None of that stuff matters.
What matters are the things that I mentioned in the podcast:
Skills, at multiple positions
Fundamentals
Athleticism
Mental Toughness
Passion for the game
This should put things in perspective to you. These are the things you should focus on if you are committed to developing young baseball players.
When your players are 17/18 years old, no one will care that they won the Cooperstown tournament at 12u, the State tournament at 13u and finished 3rd in Omaha at 14u.
The only thing that matters is what kind of players emerge from your program. Are they physically skilled baseball players? Are they good athletes? Are they mentally tough? Are they well-rounded players? Do they have a true passion for the game?
Episode 11 - Infield & Outfield Work and Making Preseason Roster Decisions
Thursday, March 15, 2007
There is a lot of good reference material out there on infield and outfield fundamentals. I would start with www.baseballexcellence.com and www.webball.com. Also, the ABCA (American Baseball Coaches Association)publications are very good, especially for the older ages groups. But, there are also some good DVD’s available.
Focus on the proper footwork first, that is the biggest secret to good fielding. (It also is the secret to accurate throws!).
In the Diamond Edge podcast, Episode 10 gave advice to players on how to prepare for tryouts. This is good for coaches to listen to also. Click here to listen.
Also, there is a good entry in the Coaches’ Journal on the St. Louis Diamond website titled “What Smart Coaches Look For”. This is a summary of some research that I did last year with high school baseball coaches. Click here for the journal entry.
Episode 10 - Positive Coaching
Wednesday, February 28, 2007
The Positive Coaching Alliance also offers some online training for becoming a Double Goal Coach.
If you are a Board Member for a youth baseball association, please consider partnering with the Positive Coaching Alliance to help train your league officers and coaches in the principles of positive coaching.
I also recommend the book, Double Goal Coach, by Jim Thompson (founder of Positive Coaching Alliance). Click here to buy the book on the PCA website.
Or, you can also find the book on Amazon.
Episode 9 - Select Baseball and Academics
Wednesday, February 28, 2007
Information on Headfirst’s College Advising program can be found at:
Information on the Honor Roll Showcase Camps can be found at:
Episode 8 - Developing Baseball Skills and Setting Individual Goals
Thursday, February 15, 2007
Thanks to Bob Byrd for a great interview. A short bio on Bob can be found by clicking here. The folks at Baseball-Excellence.com are real pioneers in internet-based baseball information.
The Skill and A Drill, Practice Planner and Gameday Coach products from Baseball-Excellence.com can be found here. These products are great values, you can get all three for just over $20. Plus you get delivery almost immediately by email.
Click here for the Amazon page on The Mental Game of Baseball by Harvey Dorfman and Karl Kuehl. This is a classic for serious baseball coaches and players. It is now in its 3rd edition.
Karl Kuehl, co-author of The Mental Game of Baseball, was recently named Player Development Executive of the Year by Baseball America. Click here for a great article about Karl.
Episode 7 - Preseason Catching Work and Developing Team Goals
Thursday, February 1, 2007
Examples of team goals can be found at the St. Louis Diamond team website. Click here for the 2006 season goals.
Baseball-Excellence.com is a great website with lots of information. Their Tip of the Week newsletter and some great articles are available on the website. Click here for a link to the articles.
Episode 6 - Indoor Practice and Setting Behavior Expectations
Monday, January 15, 2007
When you structure your indoor practices, use simple drills - don’t get overly complex.
Below are the resources on indoor drills that are mentioned in the podcast:
The “behavior expectations” are an important element in establishing your team culture. These statements describe how you behave, on the field and off the field. Click here for an example set of behavior expectations for players, coaches and parents.
Episode 5 - Arm Conditioning and Being Part of a Team
Saturday, December 30, 2006
You can subscribe to the Coaches Corner and Diamond Edge podcasts on the iTunes Store, Podcast Alley, PodcastDirectory.com and Feedburner.com. Just search for the podcast name in the search field.
Thanks to Matt Whiteside for participating in the podcast. Here is some information on Matt Whiteside:
Missouri native Matt Whiteside is a 17-year veteran to the big leagues, with stopovers in Texas, Philadelphia, San Diego, Atlanta, and Toronto. Through his experiences, Matt has obtained a wealth of knowledge about pitching mechanics, drills, the mental aspects of pitching, and appropriate conditioning regimens for pitchers of all ages. Matt candidly shares his advice and tips for success in Headfirst's new pitching video Throw like a Pro: Headfirst Fundamentals of Pitching.
Matt’s new baseball training business is called All-Star Performance Baseball, located near Kirkwood, MO. The website is http://all-starperformance.net.
During the interview, Matt mentioned his discussion with Dr. Andrews at the ASMI Center in Alabama. Click here for a link to their site. There is a lot of information on the website. Also, the Conditioning Program for Pitchers and Shoulder & Elbow Pre-hab booklets are available for only $10 (click here).
I cover more details on “Being Part of a Team” in the Diamond Edge podcast, episode #6. Click here for that episode.
Episode 4 - Offseason Pitching Progam and Tournament Schedules
Friday, December 15, 2006
In Episode 4, we focus on two topics - developing an offseason program for pitchers and developing a tournament schedule for the coming season.
The new Diamond Edge podcast can be found by here. You can also subscribe to it through iTunes, Podcast Alley or Feedburner. Just search for Diamond Edge and click on subscribe.
Click here for the discussion forum, sponsored by Google. You need to sign up for a free google account to post a message in the the discussion forum. It’s free and it’s easy.
Thanks to Matt Whiteside for participating in the podcast. Here is some information on Matt Whiteside:
Missouri native Matt Whiteside is a 17-year veteran to the big leagues, with stopovers in Texas, Philadelphia, San Diego, Atlanta, and Toronto. Through his experiences, Matt has obtained a wealth of knowledge about pitching mechanics, drills, the mental aspects of pitching, and appropriate conditioning regimens for pitchers of all ages. Matt candidly shares his advice and tips for success in Headfirst's new pitching video Throw like a Pro: Headfirst Fundamentals of Pitching.
Matt’ new baseball training business is called All-Star Performance Baseball, located near Kirkwood, MO. The website is http://all-starperformance.net.
There are a lot of tournament organizations out there. Here is a partial list of links:
Infosports has a tournament database at
Triple Crown is at http://www.triplecrownsports.com/baseball.asp
USSSA tournament listing is at:
Other links to other tournament organizations can also be found at John Skilton’s baseball directory at http://www.baseball-links.com/
A link to Walter Herbison’s Head Games book can be found here.
BaseballExcellence.com has great prices on this book. Click here.
Episode 3 - Offseason Hitting and Team Mission Statement
Thursday, November 30, 2006
The show email address is Coach.DiamondBaseball@gmail.com.
Thanks to Steve Hacker for the a great interview of the priorities for an offseason hitting program.
I forgot to mention during the podcast that Steve led the NCAA in home runs in 1996 with Missouri State. Steve hit 37 home runs, the fifth most in college baseball history.
Steve currently does hitting instruction at Balls-n-Strikes in Ballwin, MO.
Episode 2 - Speed & Strength Training and First Parent Meeting
Wednesday, November 15, 2006
We covered three key topics in this episode:
1. Definition of “select” baseball
2. Strength and strength training for select baseball players
3. Planning for the first parent meeting
I defined what is meant by “select” baseball. As a rule of thumb, select teams play 50-60+ games and practice 50-60+ times per year. That’s 100-150 team events per season. This is the level of activity describes “select” baseball.
Thanks to Meade Smith for his insights into baseball training for 12-16 year old athletes. The link to Velocity Sports is www.velocitysp.com.
The key elements of an offseason speed and strength training program for 12-16 year old baseball players include:
Core strength training. The core is from the upper legs through the hips and abdomen.
Shoulder, arm, forearm strengthening.
First step explosiveness.
Quickness and agility.
Here is a rough agenda for the first parent meeting:
Introduction of new players and parents
Discussion of team mission
Review elements of offseason, preseason and practice plans
Review overall game schedule and tournament schedule
Review communication plan
Discuss team budget and fundraising
Here is a link to our team mission statement.
There is no real good nationwide directory for tournaments. If anyone know of a good listing, please let me know or add a comment to this episode.
A site that hosts team website is at www.eteamz.com. This service is easy to administer. Other similar services can be found by just searching for “sports team websites” on Google.
The link to Headfirst is at www.playheadfirst.com. Follow the links on the website to order the dvd’s.
Episode 1 - Offseason Training and Communication Plan
Wednesday, November 1, 2006
We covered three key topics in this episode:
1. Background on the Coaches’ Corner podcast
2. Planning your offseason baseball program
3. Developing a communication plan for your team
Links and notes from the show can be found below:
Thanks to Aaron Jaworoski for his advice on developing an offseason baseball training program. You can learn more about Balls-n-Strikes at the link below.
Link the Baseball Excellence websiite. Check out the products called “Practice Planner”, “Gameday Coach”, and “Skill and a Drill”.
Also, this is the best place to buy the Head Games book by Walter Herbison, which I will review in a later episode.
Additional information, links and other notes from each episode can be found below.
