By David Bender

    The political crisis that has consumed Lebanon for months and the street violence last week is not simply about Iran and Syria using Hezbollah to maintain their influence in Lebanese affairs.  There certainly is that element, but the conflict is also about internal Lebanese sectarian struggles dating back to the 1930’s.  

    Since the French formation of Lebanon in the 1920’s, politics in the tiny country have been based on sectarianism.  Constitutionally the president must be a Christian, the Prime Minister a Sunni, and the Speaker of the Parliament a Shia.  While this gives the impression of an equitable division of power, in truth Lebanon has been run by a small number of Christians and Sunnis, who—despite their internal differences—have ensured that the Shias remain on the margins.  For most of modern Lebanese history, there was little the Shia minority could do about this arrangement.  The emergence of Hezbollah in the 1980’s gave the Shias of Lebanon a voice in their country’s affairs for the first time.

    Hezbollah was formed with the goal of expelling the Israelis from Lebanese territory, but over the past 20 years they also became an important social and political organization that brought schools, hospitals, and political influence to Shia areas that had never had any of those things.  While often labeled merely a terrorist organization in the West, the more complicated truth is that Hezbollah is a multifaceted organization.  For every rocket lobed into northern Israel there is a Shia family that depends on Hezbollah’s welfare programs to survive.

    UN resolution 1551, which called for Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon (which occurred in the spring of 2005) and the disarming of all Lebanese militias (which was aimed at Hezbollah), did not take into account the internal sectarian and class divisions in Lebanon.  Many have hoped that Hezbollah would give up its arms and focus on its social welfare activities and try to forward its agenda through the political process.  Clearly that did not happen and the war with Israel last summer demonstrated that Hezbollah is still a formidable fight force.

    While their reasons for refusing to disarm are multiple, among the most important is that Hezbollah fears without the influence that comes with being the most capable fighting force in the country, the Christians and Sunni would gang up against the Shia and push them back into the fringes where they have been for centuries.  

    Indeed this is roughly what is happening right now.  Sunnis and most Christians support the embattled coalition government; Hezbollah and its one Christian ally (Michel Aoun, whose intentions in allying with Hezbollah are unclear) have pulled out of the government and are calling for new elections or at least a new cabinet that would give them the power to veto any decision (which requires one-third of the seats).  The Shias have never had such power and have never even been in a position to demand such influence, but with Hezbollah’s victory over Israel in the summer and its position as the strongest militia in Lebanon, Hasan Nasrallah (the leader of Hezbollah) seems to be betting that this is the moment for the long suffering Shias of Lebanon to make their move.

    Last week Nasrallah called for a general strike to show the potential might of the Shias.  For a day all of Lebanon was nearly shutdown.  Blocking roads and shutting stores (sometimes by force), the entire country came to a standstill.  It was a show of force that the government could continue to ignore the Shia at its own peril.  A couple of days later, violence broke out at Beirut Arab University between rival groups.  Over the next several days around 5 people were killed.  It is a small number by Lebanese sectarian fighting standards, but an ominous sign of the potential of future violence.  Following these days of chaos, Nasrallah went on TV and called for his followers to stop their protests and to halt all violence.  When Lebanese kill Lebanese, he said, then they are no better than the Israelis.  Nasrallah seemingly has near total authority over his Shia followers and since the speech Lebanon has been peaceful, if somewhat tense.

    This attempt to carve out a greater political role for the Shia creates—or should create—a dilemma for the West.  Shunning its weapons, Hezbollah is using (mostly) peaceful protests to affect political change in the country.  If it gains the veto power, it is unclear how it would use it or what its goals are.  Sunnis, Christians, and the West obviously fear it would lead to greater Iranian and Syrian influence in the country.  They may be right, but Hezbollah serves two masters:  the Iranians and Syria are it benefactors, but recent events are showing that its greatest influence comes from its loyal constituents.  

    The Lebanese political system is based on the lie that the country is 50 percent Christian and 50 percent Muslim.  Everyone knows it is a lie, but most have agreed not to challenge it to avoid a return to civil war.  The truth, however, is that Christians are now probably less than 30 percent of the population, Sunnis are slightly more, and the Shia may soon constitute an outright majority.  Hezbollah, in addition to all the bad stuff it does (which is well documented by newspapers around the world), may simply be fighting for more a democratic Lebanon—if more for self-serving reasons than righteous ones.  The problem is that the Christians of Lebanon will never accept an official recognition that they are no longer a majority and the Sunni would be very nervous about giving the Shia so much power.

    For many decades now, Lebanon has served as something of a proxy for the wars of the region.  The Israelis fought the Palestinians and Syrians in Lebanon; the Iranians gained a foothold in the Arab world in Lebanon; and the US and French have exercised their influence in the region through Lebanon.  This is happening again right now and there are reports that the Iranians, Saudis (who strongly back the government), the Lebanese government, and Hezbollah are in secret talks about resolving the crisis.  Hopefully they will be able reach a compromise before it is too late.  But the current impasse is not only a regional issue; it is also something that goes right to the heart of why Lebanon is such a politically dysfunctional country.  Part of Hezbollah’s fight is about Israel, Syria, or Iran; but it is also about its Shia constituents living in poverty in the south and in the slums of Beirut.  At some point the there will have to some real talks about how to come to terms with the Shias’ newfound political voice.