By David Bender

    Adding to this farce is the scene around Syria.  Damascus is covered in banners proclaiming the people’s love for the president (see pictures at the bottom of this page).  A huge rally was held two days ago in support of another seven-year term for the president.  But the propaganda goes way too far.  Judging from the signs one would think that Bashar was truly one of the greatest humans to walk the Earth.  He is wise, infallible, pious, and universally adored.  It is understandable to passionately support a political leader, but to turn him into a virtual demi-god undermines any degree of credibility and turns the whole thing into a somewhat embarrassing exercise.

    Critics rightly lament the lack of accountability in Arab politics, but there is a flip side to this problem.  The regime is kept so far away from popular discussion that people do not even talk about the good things that it has done.  Bashar has a highly mixed record, which is to say that he has made some terrible mistakes and has shown a lack of vision in many areas; but at the same time, he has managed regional crisis more than adequately and made some limited reforms that can be built upon.  

    It must be remembered that being president of Syria between 2000 and 2007 has not been an easy job.  Bashar came to power in the summer of 2000, just as the peace process between Israel and Syria was breaking down.  George W. Bush, someone far more inclined towards a pro-Israel (rather than pro-peace, as Clinton had been) stance was about to become the American president.  A year later 9/11 happened, creating potential crisis in the Middle East.  The war in Afghanistan held the possibility of further instability.  Finally the American invasion of Iraq created a massive threat to Syrian national security as an increasingly anti-Syrian White House had 130,000 troops just next door.  Tough American sanctions were finally imposed on Syria in 2004.  The Hariri assassination in Lebanon (which Syria may be guilty of) further heightened anxiety in Syria.  And various Islamist groups have staged attacks inside the country (though none were particularly successful or threatening) over the past several years.  

    This is not to be an apologist for Bashar.  Some of the pressures and problems he faces were of his own making, but the point is that criticisms of his first term should be informed by the very real threats he has faced.  But still there has been is virtually no discussion of a report card about his first seven years in office.  Accountability can be more than just criticisms of problems; it can also be compliments of successes.  Thus, the report card on Bashar al-Asad’s first seven years in office:

 

Economic Reform:  C+

In Bashar’s inauguration speech in 2000, he said that he would focus on economic reform during his first term.  There have been some important reforms.  Private banking is now permitted; foreign investment is coming in from Gulf countries; and Syria’s economy is growing.  But Syria’s economy still performs poorly.  Part of the problem is endemic corruption and overly restrictive laws.  While this is as much a political problem as an economic one, the economy cannot succeed in any real way until corruption and bribes are brought under control.  Syrian business people spend too much of their time trying to work out strategies to get around corruption officials and archaic regulations.  Until Bashar really makes an effort to transform the laws and attitudes of government bureaucrats in a fundamental way so that the state starts to serve the interests of businesspeople rather than extort from them, little progress will be made.  Nonetheless, there is great potential today for economic growth in Syria, if the right choices are made.

 

Political reform has been essentially non-existence.  Syria continues to be an autocratic state ruled by a small clique.  Dissent is still punished with potentially long prison terms and the country’s human rights record remains abysmal.  Torture in prison is standard practice and the secret police are still ubiquitous.  Given all this, why a “D” and not an “F”?  Perhaps more a result of Bashar’s personality than any real reform, Syrian society is much more open than before.  Today Syrians will talk in public—though not publicly—about politics and problems in Syria.  It is a small thing, but there is not the climate of fear as there was under Hafiz al-Asad.  That is a real move in the right direction.

 

Foreign Affairs (excluding Lebanon):  B

Against all odds, Syria seems to be emerging as a winner.  Syria aided the Iraqi insurgency, funds Hezbollah and Hamas, is allied with Iran, sends—at best—mixed signals on peace to Israel, and has opposed the US at every step over the past four years. For years Syria allowed foreign fighters into Iraq and the US even talked about doing raids into Syria to stop them; but today the US is asking Syria for help on Iraq.  Syria has emerged from the chaos of the last several years as the one Arab country with the courage to oppose the US.  While this is probably a result more of US and Israeli incompetence than Syrian brilliance, in the end it does not really matter.  Syria today—with the exception of its huge liability in Lebanon—is in a stronger position regionally than it has been in for years.  However, Syria must now take advantage of its position by engaging the US and Israel and it is not clear if it will or if it will simply bask in self-congratulations.

 

Lebanon:  F

Lebanon may emerge as one of Syria’s greatest strategic failures since 1967.  Syria may or may not be guilty of the assassination of Hariri, but what is clear is that the government has not had any plan with how to effectively deal with Lebanon.  The UN tribunal investigating the killing may yet name top Syrian officials.  If Syria is found to have played a role in the assassination, all of Bashar’s other accomplishments will mean nothing and Syria will become a pariah state like Libya post-Lockerbie.  While Syria may be hoping for some grand bargain that will excuse its role in Hariri’s death, there is little to suggest that the US or France are interested in letting Syria off the hook.  Lebanon is Syria’s greatest liability right now and may prove to be the greatest threat to Bashar’s rule.