David Zach, futurist www.davidzach.com

A. How to Think Like a Futurist, part 1

Sun, 9 Sep 2007 16:50:15 -0500

As a way of introducing various trends and issues with the future, it seems important to explain just what in the world a futurist is. And isn’t.

B. Future Technology

Sat, 8 Sep 2007 18:52:33 -0500

Below are the 22 trend topics that I believe to be relevant for strategic planning regarding the next 15 years or so. They have been divided in to five sections, B, D, F, G & H. These are not so much forecasts as they are identified current trends and issues for discussion regarding their implications for the years between now and 2022. (Your actual mileage may differ.) This first section is about general technology trends and developments. (Like you could talk about strategic futures and not start with technology, specifically microchips?)

C. How to Think Like a Futurist, part 2

Fri, 7 Sep 2007 20:58:17 -0500

While I'm on the topic of explaining futurists, I should perhaps explain a bit about this futurist. I’ve always been a bit of a skeptic about futurists and the whole field of futurism. I don’t believe in predicting the future as we’re not particularly adept at even predicting the present. Why worry about future shock when it’s present shock that has so many people all hot and bothered? First things first?

I was described by a friend as a Chestertonian Futurist. This is in reference to G. K. Chesterton, a journalist and writer who died back in 1936. He wrote over 100 books and over 4000 newspaper columns. He wrote about everything and was considered one of the great thinkers of the 20th century. Fortunately, his thoughts have much to say about the 21st century and the choices we face. This was a man whose thoughts were not anchored into his own time. (For more on G. K. Chesterton, visit www.chesterton.org)

Consider the notion of futuristic. This is applied to things that are brand new, fresh and high tech. It never seems to apply to the old, the traditional or forgotten. But take anything now considered futuristic and put it on the shelf for a year or two. Come back to it and most likely it's outdated and dull. Obviously it's no longer futuristic.

We need to rethink the definition and this is where Chesterton comes in. He said that It is of the new things that men tire . . . of fashions and proposals and improvements and change. It is the old things that startle and intoxicate. It is the old things that are young. Hmmm. Maybe we've been wrong. Futuristic is a term best applied to the things that stand the test of time.

Or how about this notion from Chesterton: We should always endeavour to wonder at the permanent thing, not at the mere exception. We should be startled by the sun, and not by the eclipse. We should wonder less at the earthquake, and wonder more at the earth. We take exception to the latest iPod (Yeah, I've got one.) but fail to notice the fascinating things that have always been here. If something has a future, then it's futuristic. If it doesn't have a future, maybe it's just a fad, stealing our attention and perhaps entertaining us in exchange, but in the end, it quickly grows old and useless. We would do well to look for the old things that are young.

One more quote to help reconsider futuristic. Chesterton said that To love anything is to realize that it might be lost. This tells us to appreciate what we have and to realize what is really important. Often what we love is not permanent. Being futuristic is often about being focused on what's next, but consider that it's also what's next to us right here and now. Too much of life is spent waiting for things.

D. Future Healthcare

Thu, 6 Sep 2007 09:07:25 -0500

Looking at the future of healthcare gives one something of an ability to take the pulse of the economy and the culture. It doesn’t take a futurist to know that if costs keep soaring, new healthcare buildings keep rising and advertisements warning about erections lasting more than four hours are shown during family hour TV, you know that something quite absurd is driving the industry. The fact is healthcare doesn’t have a lot to do with healthcare any more. Now it’s business. As always, follow the money.

E. How to Think Like a Futurist, part 3

Wed, 5 Sep 2007 10:02:18 -0500

When you look out there at the world, you can divide much of it into three categories: Fads, Trends or Principles. My little mantra for this is that we should Play with fads, Work with trends, and Live by principles. This is easier said than done because we are too often Seduced by fads, Ignorant of trends and Resistant to principles.

F. Future Knowledge

Tue, 4 Sep 2007 09:16:02 -0500

The question has been asked, Where is the knowledge in information, where is the wisdom in knowledge? This is about an economy just beginning to learn the full potential of all the ways we can harvest and apply knowledge. The truth really is out there.

G. Future People

Mon, 3 Sep 2007 09:18:08 -0500

In case you’ve not noticed, the talk goes from the very technical eventually into the very personal. It starts with the insides of a computer chip and ends in the arms of a grandparent. In this section, well look at organizations, skills preparation, the unbelievably slow departure of the Baby Boomers (from whatever it is that they’re doing, from working to dying) and whether this is a golden age for the individual at work or just the same old dismal setting of abandoning all hope, ye who enter here.

H. Future Attitudes

Sun, 2 Sep 2007 09:20:06 -0500

As my friend and fellow speaker James T. Harris likes to say, It’s the culture, stupid. This segment is about the things we willingly do that are hurting our ability to have a better future. It is in contrast to the Conclusion segment which offers humor, hope and alternatives.

I. The Conclusion

Sat, 1 Sep 2007 09:21:44 -0500

Sorry to disappoint, but there’s no way I’m posting the conclusion. As you may recall, it’s got a few surprises and a few of what are called in the speechifying biz as signature stories. These are best left to the actual presentation.

I will tell you that the conclusion of the future is not just focus on all the technology and all the changes but to focus on the here and now as well as the eternal. Take time to actually be a part of life and connect with those around you. Don’t just think about the present time as a preparation for the future time, but think in what I call panoramic time– past, present and future. Make the future safe not just for ourselves and our children, but maybe, just maybe our grandparents too.

For more information, visit my website: www.davidzach.com
as well as my blog at: http://davidzach.typepad.com

Thanks. Please feel free to add any comments. Feedback is welcome.

Movie: The Future Value of Old Ideas

Fri, 31 Aug 2007 20:46:02 -0500

This is the movie of quotations that played during lunch.
If your favorite quotation didn’t quite make it into this list, please send it to me via my website. Suggestions are always welcome.