Behind the curtain
 
 
I tried to figure out how to explain Algorithm 11 (my current ratings calculation scheme for both football and basketball) in 1000 words or less. I don't think I could explain it in full in less than 2500 words. It would be easier to send the damn spreadsheet to someone and let them figure it out for themselves. Conceptually: I have a games-played correction, which still rewards for extra games (conference championship or bowl games) even if a loss. I have a countdown-based correction to the W-L record for use as the rate in the first iteration. There is an award dependent on the time in season, home/road/neutral location, and the rating of the opponent. The awards are totalled and the results plotted mathematically along a line with total awards on the x-axis and ratings estimate on the y-axis, and the slope and y-intercept of the best-fit line is calculated. The total award is used against the best-fit line to calculate the new rating, completing the first iteration. The rating calculated to determine the total awards in second iteration, and the cycle continues for twenty more cycles. The average of the twentieth and twenty-first rating iterations is used as the posted rating. Believe me, I would not want to try to figure this out with a good spreadsheet.http://www.openoffice.orgshapeimage_2_link_0
Ratings calculation page
Updated Wednesday, January 9, 2008