GenoDynamics

Understanding Rwandan Political Violence

Conflict in Time and Space

To comprehend exactly who did what to whom in Rwanda during 1994, our research consulted numerous sources both inside as well as outside the country. Some sources directly interviewed/surveyed victims in Rwanda or refugee camps outside of it. Other sources interviews/surveyed survivors, asking them who was lost and how. This work was funded by the National Science Foundation.

Below we provide a summary of our work thus far, the sources employed, the methodology used to combine them, the data that emerged from our efforts as well as responses to the project that we received. In addition to this, you will find links to other data as well as photographs of Rwanda.

Project Summary

While there are many issues we seek to understand, thus far we have concluded several things about the violence that took place in Rwanda during 1994: 1) most research on Rwandan political violence is misleading, 2) there were several forms of political violence being enacted at once (genocide, politicide, civil war, random violence and vendetta killings), 3) the extremist Hutu government as well as the Rwandan Patriotic Front engaged in violent activity against Rwandan citizens, and 4) the majority of victims were likely Hutu and not Tutsi. These findings have implications for public policy, advocacy, humanitarian intervention as well as post-conflict reconstruction.

The Sources

African Rights is a regional organization developed to bring truth and justice to the victims of the genocide. In their publication, “Rwanda: Death, Despair and Defiance” they attempted to compile as many eyewitness accounts of the genocide into one book. This specific publication is the second edition and includes additional data from Southern and Western Rwanda (particularly the prefectures of Kibuye, Cyangugu, and Gikongoro); areas previously inaccessible during the genocide. Ultimately, their efforts attempt to cover the entire country. One individual conducted interviews during and up until a year after the genocide. Although the number of interviews is unknown, we do know the methodology is based on a snowball sample where information from one interview leads to another. Genodynamics coded the information within the text where both date and place were noted.

Expert Testimony from former RPF Military Officer - Joshua Abdul Ruzibiza. The Ruzibiza manuscript (“Rwanda the Secret History”) seeks to describe the events surrounding the Rwandan genocide and civil war with a focus on the RPF actions and troop movements. Ruzibiza was one of the individuals responsible for tracking troop movements.

Human Rights Watch is an international NGO dedicated to monitor human rights violations all over the world. The purpose of their publication, “Leave None to Tell the Tale” is to educate people and bolster public support for the prosecution of those who participated in the genocide. This particular study is based on the oral testimonies of survivors, killers, people who saved, and bystanders of genocide as well as written documentation from diplomats, UN staff members, and the local Rwandan administration. Hundreds of interviews took place beginning in 1995. Historians, political scientist, and lawyers were involved in the data collection effort, but the number involved is unknown. Although Human Rights Watch intended to document the entire country they paid particular attention to Southern Rwanda, which was most affected by the genocide. Genodynamics coded the information within the text where both date and place were noted as in African Rights.

Ibuka is primarily a Tutsi organization developed to bring truth and justice to the survivors of the genocide. The purpose of the “Kibuye Dictionary Project” was to provide justice for the victims and their families by thoroughly identifying all the victims in this prefecture. Additionally, they attempted to document the number, names, circumstances and date of death of the genocide victims (Tutsi) in Kibuye.

Ibuka is a highly organized association with members acting as enumerators all over the country down to the cellule level (200 in total). One scholar, Philip Verwimp sites a lack of experience and the choice to use only survivors as enumerators as the main flaws of the study. Verwimp offered a correction to the original database which we employ.

International Criminal Tribunal on Rwanda (ICTR) in Arusha, Tanzania. Between 1994 and approximately 2002, the prosecution for the ICTR engaged in a large-scale data collection effort of eyewitness testimony. Many of these records deal with specific cases that the court was investigating but many simply resulted from interviews in the country as well as in refugee camps outside of the country. GenoDynamics was contacted to analyze this database and compare it to the other information that we had collected. We were never given the records, however, we only saw some examples as well as the database filing system. Mid-trial the prosecution no longer expressed an interest in this analysis and GenoDynamics was contacted by the defense for exactly the same service. Through the defense, we petitioned to have the eyewitness database made available, which after about a year we did obtain. These records are comprised of about 5,000 testimonies (we believe that there are several thousand more but these were the only ones released by the Prosecutor’s office to the court and for our analysis that we were doing for them at the time). For the record, we also requested access to the convicted prisoners, a military map that identified military forces on the eve of the political violence of 1994. After several months, we obtained the map.

The Ministry of Education, Scientific Research and Culture is a cabinet of the Rwandan government. This organization engaged in a project “The Commission for the Memorial of the Genocide and Massacre in Rwanda” whose purpose was to provide information to researchers and the general public on the Rwandan genocide. While the Ministry of Higher Education designed the project, it was executed with the assistance from other ministries including Labour and Social Affairs, Rehabilitation and Social Integration, Home Affairs and Communal Development, Family Affairs and Women’s Development and Defense. The Project was funded by HCDH, UNICEF, GTZ and UNESCO/PEER. The report that emerged from their data collection effort was a product of the two and a half month research project. The methods of obtaining the necessary information occurred in several stages: 1) initiating contact with the prefecture and commune officials, 2) visiting the sites, and 3) recording testimonies and any available information about each genocide site. A fourth stage involve acquiring testimonies associated with the specific area in question. In order to gather the most accurate information only those who were present during the genocide were interviewed.

The Ministry of Local Administration and Department of Information and Social Affairs in Rwanda developed a report called “The Counting of Genocide Victims.” The objectives of this project were to name the victims of the genocide, identify the numbers of victims, and to locate areas most affected by the genocide as a guide for aid allocation. Beginning in 2000, in cooperation with the National University of Rwanda and the National Office of Population a countrywide survey was implemented and analyzed. Although the number of respondents is unclear, we know they were either survivors or neighbors of those who died. 1,825 enumerators were recruited to carry out the survey. Genodynamics used this report as a comprehensive overview of the genocide and compared this data to already collected information in the database. The actual name of the report is as follows: Ministere De L'Adminstration Locale, De L'Information Et Des Affaires Sociales. Denombrement Des Victimes Du Genocide. Rapport Final. Republique Rwandaise. B.P. 3445 Kigali. Novembre 2002.

Physicians for Human Rights is an organization that uses medical and scientific methods in order to uncover human rights violations. The objective of their efforts in Rwanda was to collect evidence for the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda (ICTR). Within this two-month project, they conducted a forensics investigation of this specific area surrounding the Kibuye Catholic Church and Home of St. Jean. Their efforts consisted of sketching maps of buildings and vegetation within this area, searching for and categorizing skeletal remains, and excavating mass graves. The team of specialists is made up of seventeen individuals with forensics pathology and anthropology expertise.

The Database (Not yet publicly available)

Reported Start Dates and Lethality (Magnitude of Violence)

Estimated Start Dates and Lethality (Magnitude of Violence)

Methodological Explanation

Mapping Political Violence (Not yet publicly available)

While investigating the political violence in Rwanda, we became convinced that an important part of the story was being ignored - specifically, which military units had control over the relevant territory where individuals were being killed. Such information is crucial because if the extremist government had control, then it is possible that the violence was genocidal; if the rebels (the Rwandan Patriotic Front) had control, then it is possible that the violence were reprisal killings; and, if the violence took place on the frontline (between the two military forces), then it is likely that the deaths resulted from civil war. In all three scenarios, it is also possible that the killings resulted from random violence or personal vendettas. In an effort to tease this out, we investigated the topic directly. The following animations illustrate these attempts.

Start Dates and Battle-fronts

Lethality and Battle-fronts

What they say about the GenoDynamics Project (A Controversy in 6 parts)

1) The Press Release - What we said/wrote (“Rwanda 1994: More than Genocide”)

2) The poorly researched and inaccurate Reuters story that started all the

controversy (“Rwanda Killings weren’t Genocide”)

“An aide to Rwandan President Paul Kagame said the research was a "malicious”

attempt to distort the truth just days ahead of memorials on Wednesday to mark

the 10th anniversary of the start of the killings... "It's an insult to survivors and to

Rwandans in general," said Alfred Ndahiro, an adviser to Kagame. "I think we

should treat it with contempt. It's incredible that such things can come up at this

time," he told Reuters on Saturday. He said the government had not yet seen the