A lot of people have noticed the unusual amount of parity in the first month and a half of the baseball season.  Some think it’s good for the game, while others say that baseball needs to have a couple of consistently powerful teams in order to be exciting.

But the real question is – are these surprises merely flukes that will fade away as the year goes on, or will they continue to shock the baseball world?  Here’s a list of a few teams outperforming expectations and my opinion on if/when they will come back down to earth.

Florida Marlins – Let’s just forget that I picked them to finish last in the NL East.  Actually, I don’t know what’s worse – the fact that I didn’t know the Marlins would actually be good, or the fact I didn’t realize how terrible the Washington Nationals would be.  But anyways, Florida got off to a hot start in April and everyone is still waiting for them to cool off.  Instead, they’re still first in one of baseball’s toughest divisions, they’ve won seven straight games, and they’ve hit the second most home runs in the NL.  But their offense hasn’t been the surprise in 2008, because the power in the Marlins lineup was apparent even before the season.  Florida’s weak spot was supposed to be pitching – yet they’ve kept right on pace with the rest of the league so far.  They’ve allowed the fifth fewest hits in the NL, Scott Olsen and Mark Hendrickson have won a combined 9 games, and Kevin Gregg is 6-7 in save opportunities.  With that said, I still can’t believe in the Marlins magic.  I guarantee that you will see their pitching staff fall apart by July.  None of the Florida starters besides Olsen and Hendrickson have ERA’s of under 5, and it doesn’t sound like last year’s ace, Josh Johnson, will be back until the very end of the season.  I’m glad Hanley Ramirez got a nice contract, but the Marlins, for now, are still builders – not winners.  VERDICT -- NOT FOR REAL

Oakland Athletics – Wow, yet another first-place team that I predicted would finish at the bottom of their division.  Thanks to the Angels 4-game losing streak, the A’s have first place in the AL West all to themselves – and they’ve done it with a balanced attack.  Oakland is currently leading the league in team ERA (3.29) and is second in the AL in runs scored (187).  Even so, I think both sides of their success are fake.  They’re patching a starting rotation together as they go, which is never a good strategy.  Justin Duchscherer won a starting spot after coming off of the DL and has been a pleasant surprise, going 3-1 with a 2.45 ERA in 4 starts.  But Joe Blanton is still trying to figure out how to win, and Rich Harden has already gotten hurt once this year and looked ugly in his start over the weekend.  Just like those pesky Marlins, the A’s starting rotation is going to fall apart by the middle of the season – and I’m confident that they will be sellers by the time the trading deadline comes around.  As I mentioned, the offense has been scoring a ton of runs – but they’ve simply been outperforming their potential.  They’re 10th in the AL in batting average right now, and even if Eric Chavez can come back from injury and contribute – the A’s still won’t see the playoffs.  VERDICT -- NOT FOR REAL

St. Louis Cardinals – Sure they won the World Series just a couple of years ago, but no one expected much from the Cardinals in 2008.  Yet they find themselves in a battle for the lead in the NL Central.  Albert Pujols has put elbow worries to rest, hitting .348, slugging 7 homers and 25 RBI, and putting together a ridiculous 1.083 OPS.  Rick Ankiel seems to be coming out of his slump, Troy Glaus is making St. Louis forget about Scott Rolen, and Skip Schumaker is playing dandy in the outfield and has a cool name too!  But the key to St. Louis’s surprising success has been the pitching staff.  Adam Wainwright has become the ace that people said he could be – he flaunts a 2.25 ERA and .96 WHIP.  And although the guys behind him – like Todd Wellemeyer, Braden Looper, and Kyle Lohse – don’t sound like an appealing rotation, they’re keeping the Cardinals in games.  Then again, that doesn’t count for much when you have the struggling Jason Isringhausen in the bullpen, who blew five saves before removing himself from the closer role a couple days ago.  So since they have a questionable rotation and plenty of issues in relief – there’s no way I can say the Cardinals are for real, right?  Not exactly.  The Milwaukee Brewers have no starting pitching left and are fading fast, while just the opposite is true for St. Louis.  Mark Mulder, Matt Clement, and New Hampshire’s own Chris Carpenter are all on their way back – and even though they will probably never resemble their former selves – I still like the added protection they give to one of the deepest rotations in baseball.  VERDICT -- FOR REAL

Minnesota Twins – The unpredictable struggles for the Tigers and Indians have created plenty of hope in the AL Central.  Both the Royals and White Sox have flirted with the division lead – but as both of them have begun to come down to earth, that leaves the Minnesota Twins at the top.  After pulling out that wild game against the Red Sox last night, Minnesota is now 7-3 over their last 10 games, and they’re winning games behind guys named Boof Bonser and Nick Blackburn.  Don’t forget – all this is happening without Francisco Liriano, who ended up back at Triple A even though he was expected to be a consistent part of the Minnesota rotation.  The lineup is getting it done as well, and Joe Mauer and Delmon Young haven’t even hit a home run yet.  So as you can tell, the Twins success is probably the most unexplainable – and not surprisingly, I don’t buy it.  Livan Hernandez has been the staff’s ace and he goes tonight against Boston, but I don’t see him staying on this pace for much longer.  It’s only a matter of time before Detroit and Cleveland get their act together and blow the rest of the division away.  VERDICT -- NOT FOR REAL

Tampa Bay Rays – I know what you’re thinking.  Bennett, you love your Rays and obviously you are going to say that they are for real.  Well that part is true, but I think they have a justifiable case.  I’ve blabbed plenty about their starting rotation, so let’s talk about that offense a little bit.  The thing I like most about Tampa Bay is that while other teams are starting to lose players to injury, the Rays are getting guys back.  Cliff Floyd looked great in his first game off of the DL, and his return gives Joe Maddon a ton of options with the lineup.  Essentially, you’ve got four capable guys – Floyd, Gabe Gross, Eric Hinske, and Johnny Gomes – all battling for two spots.  That sounds like healthy competition to me.  Plus, don’t forget that Al “Don’t Tase Me” Reyes and Gary Glover are both returning to that great Tampa Bay bullpen.  So as long as Carlos Pena can come out of his month-long funk and the team proves that they can win on the road, I think the Rays can still shoot for a .500 record or even better.  Before the season, I was positive that the AL Wild Card would come out of the Central division – but thanks to the issues in Detroit and Cleveland that we talked about before, Tampa could possibly be the second best team in the AL East – meaning that life-long playoff drought might be over sooner than anyone imagined.  VERDICT -- FOR REAL